Ukraine: Turbulent Times

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022, aiming to “demilitarize and denazify” the country. Expected to be a swift victory, it has become a prolonged war with heavy casualties and destruction. Millions have been displaced as refugees or internally.

The US and Europe have supplied Ukraine with military and financial aid while sanctioning Russia. The war has reshaped geopolitics, heightening NATO-Russia tensions and driving Europe closer to the US while distancing it from Russia (and partly China). These shifts may prove Russia's most enduring strategic cost.

Peace efforts have failed, as Russia demands Ukraine withdraw from four annexed regions, renounce NATO membership, and accept limits on its military—conditions rejected by Kyiv and its allies. Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of Donbas. Fighting continues with ongoing attacks and counterattacks.

Ukraine depends on Western aid, while Russia faces sanctions and isolation. Competition also extends to energy and resources: both Putin and Trump seek to expand natural gas exports and secure Arctic shipping routes, while also eyeing control of mineral wealth—Ukraine's for Moscow, Greenland's for Washington.